http://twitter.com/#!/TIMEPolitics/status/261197666308993024
A new poll released today by Time magazine shows President Obama with a 5-point lead in the critical battleground state of Ohio, which has sided with the winner in 27 of the last 29 presidential elections.
To answer your first question: the Time poll of 783 likely voters relies on a D+9 sample. Thirty-seven percent of respondents identified as Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 29 percent Independents.
@markhalperin @time Ha! Guessed it! D+9 sample, smallest GOP turnout projected in history #tcot
— Max Twain (@MaxTwain) October 24, 2012
@markhalperin @time D +9 sample, Romney leads indies by 23% #tcot
— Max Twain (@MaxTwain) October 24, 2012
Time Ohio poll has Obama up 5, 49-44. Sample is D+9 (was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010). Romney leads indys by 15%. Many more undecideds are Reps.
— NumbersMuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 24, 2012
Do my eyes deceive me? Time CNN poll in Ohio has it 36D/27R? 9 points? 4 points more than ’08? That’s just embarrassing.
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) October 24, 2012
Ohio was D+5 in 2008 andTime just released a D+9 with Obama under 50!!!!! 49-44.
— John Nolte(@NolteNC) October 24, 2012
Oversampling Democrats? Time would like you to know that everybody’s doing it.
RT @michaelscherer: TIME Ohio poll +9 D ID advantage is in line with recent Fox News Ohio poll (+8 D) and CBS/Quin Ohio Poll (+9 D)
— TIMEPolitics (@TIMEPolitics) October 24, 2012
Time’s poll takes into account early voters, two-thirds of whom say they have already voted for Obama. Among those who have yet to vote, the race is considered a dead heat; therefore, turnout on Election Day is an important factor.
Ohio is going to be 4 points more Democratic in turnout in 2012 when the rest of the country is trending the other way. #hackityhack
— Nathan Wurtzel (@NathanWurtzel) October 24, 2012
In Time’s Ohio poll, they show 20% of those surveyed have early voted.If so, turnout will be several million less than voted in 2008.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) October 24, 2012
Would like to know why Time thinks more D’s will furn out in Ohio now than in 2006 or 2008.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) October 24, 2012
The Washington Examiner’s Philip Klein notes that Obama does seems to have the edge in the state according to most polls, but Time’s D+9 sample is a bit much to swallow.
RCP avg has 12 OH polls in last 2 weeks. Obama up in 9 & 3 are tied. Obama may not be up 5 pts, but seems pretty clear he has edge in state
— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) October 24, 2012
@philipaklein He has edge, but no reason to believe bad polls just because of it. PPP has him up 1. RCP av is 2.1. Sounds right.
— Sunny (@sunnyright) October 24, 2012
@philipaklein Have u considered the polling accuracy? Polling is D+9. Rasmussen has most accurate polling 04 & 08 & they have OH tied today
— Meir Spear (@ms1818) October 24, 2012
Perfectly willing to believe Obama has small edge in Ohio, and think Romney should operate from that assumption. But this is nonsense.
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) October 24, 2012
If you don’t care for Time’s sample, Public Policy Polling is happy to offer its services for a price.
Lots of folks calling for OH tracking poll- if some org wants to sponsor for 20k we’ll do 400 a night tmrw through Sunday beforeelection
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 24, 2012
HuffPo’s political editor has a counteroffer.
i’d pay you not to do it RT @ppppolls: Lots of folks calling for OH tracking poll
— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 24, 2012
